THE PREMIERSHIP APRIL 12th

[winbet]

I just want to get this one out of the way for now and post the others later Today.

READING - FULHAM

TRUE LINE: Reading 2.23 Fulham 3.7 Draw 3.53

OPENING: Reading 1.92 Ave 2.00 best 2.02 Betfair
Fulham 3.87 Ave 4.08 best 4.3 Betfair
Draw 3.27 Ave 3.45 Best 3.55 betfair

A couple of things first, I regard William Hills Soccer Team as one of the best and they have the draw in high along with my assessment so the draw is going to be hard to lay in this Match. The reason Reading has opened up skinny is there's no significant injury doubts and their recent form puts their price on 2.07 on my workings, making the Draw even longer. It has to be remembered that the majority of Punters dont even look at Football bets till at least Friday so certain info which doesnt particularly worry the books can make a big difference when punters read it on Saturday. One more thing is British Books always concern themselves with bankers on the Premiership card, The big boys are always depressed but they also look for any other sloid bet going in accumulators and reading looks like one. 30Years ago I was running one of the bigger betting shops in London and it used to take £5K on a Saturday, well a shop in Glasgow used to take £5K in the morning on Football coupons alone, so you can see why the Books like to deflate the prices on bankers, its worth a lot of cash.

Normally I would say pass here as the value appears to have gone but the press surrounding Fulham at the moment is devastating with players given up on the year and talk of the Manager getting the boot. All this leads me to thinking Reading can only shorten so a Bet on the Asian H'cap -0.5 @ Evens is worth having, those with access to exchanges can always buy back Saturday if something crops up, by which time Reading should be well odds on. :drink:

 

[joeyfitzclick]

Agreed.

Reading - .5 - 104 is the bet.

This will be - 120 by Saturday K.O.

 

[joeyfitzclick]

Adding


Bolton - .5 + 115
Villa - 1 + 106
Man Utd - .5 - 112

 

[winbet]

As stated the draw in the Reading game is being impossible to lay and is up to 3.65 on Betfair, when you see that the chances of conceding no goals is 23% & 12% for both the 0-0 looks highly unlikely.

With The champions League in midweek things seem to have been slow this week so I'll leave any concrete discisions until tomorrow, however we can try to analyse any injuries and their impact on the prices.

BIRMINGHAM - EVERTON

True line : Birm 3.04 Everton 2.69 Draw 3.32
Opening line: Birm 3.00 Everton 2.45 Draw 3.3
The books opened up Everton bang on their recent form price here which should have seen Birmingham price drifting to 3.4 considering no change in the draw because of Brums home record for Draws, Betfair did try to extend the Draw over 3.4 but its back down now. What catches the eye here is how Betfair are pushing Evertons price out while the Books are very cautious on Brum, there are injuries to consider and thats where you people come in to say how significant they are, until then I will reserve judgement.

SUNDERLAND - MAN CITY

True line: Sund 2.66 Man C 3.09 Draw 3.30
Opening line: Sund 2.3 Man c 3.55 Draw 3.3
The recent form price of Sunderland was 2.39 making the draw 3.35 and Man C 3.51, the latest prices have Sunderland at 2.24 best while the books unusually for this time of the week have gone 3.69 on Man C, even bigger at Betfair 3.75. I suppose there's an argument that a Team winning 50% of their Home games playing a Team losing 43% of theirs warrants a bet at 2.3 but I would like to know what the injury status is for both sides.

PORTSMOUTH - NEWCASTLE

True line: Ports 2.18 Newc 3.9 Draw 3.49
opening line: Ports 2.25 Newc 3.75 Draw 3.45
I've put this Game up as it falls in the criteria set out but recent form makes this very foggy and a pass may be the best bet, however, any info would be worth a second look.

BOLTON - WEST HAM

True line: Bolton 2.6 West H 3.17 Draw 3.3
opening: Bolton 2.25 West H 3.7 draw 3.4
Once again recent form clouds the issue here and several angles can be seen but the same goes here, any info on injuries etc may clear things up.

I'll be doing more on these Games Today as regards any Bets and remember, I can look up the latest injury reports but My problem is I havent a clue who they are outside the Big names and what their worth to certain strategies are, hopefully thats where you come in. :drink:

 

[quantumleap]

If Fulham has given up, how does the under look?

 

[winbet]

If Fulham has given up, how does the under look?

Morning QL, Fulham havent given up, nobody does at this level their conditioned to compete from an early age. All I,m saying is when the negative press gets read this weekend everyone will jump on Reading and when I'm confident something like this is going to happen I double or triple My bet then buy it back and either have a good price or stand to lose less for my money. As for the under I might as well post what I think now but I leave it open to change.

While I have the total goals at 2.51 and Fulhams away record reads 62% under 2.5 Goals the fly in the ointment is Readings penchant for going over the Total by virtue of winning 2-1 in a lot of Games, leaving Me with a no bet. As far as I'm concerned correct score Betting is the Books biggest earner and unless you have access to exchanges who offer realistic odds your asking for trouble. That said once an Asian bet is passed on I would consider a correct score at the right Odds rather than an over/under bet. Last Weeks Arsenal draw was a good example of betting the draw as opposed to singling out a correct score but sometimes the 0-0 is a waste betting the under. :drink:

 

[winbet]

If you havent taken the Evens -0.5 Reading yet you need to before Tomorrow. Its a fair bet on its own but if you have access to Betfair or Betdaq then press up some like I said. The draw is up to 3.75 on Betfair and if it stays like that will put severe pressure on the Books as 0-0 is a good as a kick in the bollocks for them. :drink:

 

[quantumleap]

Morning QL, Fulham havent given up, nobody does at this level their conditioned to compete from an early age. All I,m saying is when the negative press gets read this weekend everyone will jump on Reading and when I'm confident something like this is going to happen I double or triple My bet then buy it back and either have a good price or stand to lose less for my money. As for the under I might as well post what I think now but I leave it open to change.

While I have the total goals at 2.51 and Fulhams away record reads 62% under 2.5 Goals the fly in the ointment is Readings penchant for going over the Total by virtue of winning 2-1 in a lot of Games, leaving Me with a no bet. As far as I'm concerned correct score Betting is the Books biggest earner and unless you have access to exchanges who offer realistic odds your asking for trouble. That said once an Asian bet is passed on I would consider a correct score at the right Odds rather than an over/under bet. Last Weeks Arsenal draw was a good example of betting the draw as opposed to singling out a correct score but sometimes the 0-0 is a waste betting the under. :drink:

Thanks for the reply winbet.

:drink:

 

[winbet]

Reading-Fulham
As expected the price has gone odds on and instead of having better odds I will use the extra percentage and have .10 unit on correct score 1-1 as a saver @ 7.8
Birmingham-Everton
Certainly something isnt right here the way the betting is going but its probably Evertons recent form isnt as good as it looks and they now play a home Team getting some defenders back. Anyhow the only value I can see is in the correct score. The under is the way to go here but a 0-0 is highly unlikely as is either Team scoring 2 so the following bets brings the total to odds against
1-0 .20 unit
1-1 .23 unit
0-1 .18 unit that works out to about 2.5 (+150)

Sunderland-Man City
I was tempted with Sunderland but their price has gone under the forecast with no other reason than recent form against a bad road Team. There is atrong case for the Under even 2 here but once again its odds on and betting too many odds on shots leads only to the poor house. The strong numbers in this game come out to the following correct scores.
1-0 .18 unit
1-1 .20 unit that works out to about 2.63 (+163)

Portsmouth-Newcastle
The alarm bells are out on Portsmouth as the expected 2.18 has drifted out to 2.32 and rising, I'm not sure why but if anyone has a notion please post. Once again I'm loathe to take the favourite on but the 0-0 looms large in the stats and with 1-0 a steady second so rather than lay out more cash on some hunches I'll stick to the correct scores
0-0 .10 unit
1-0 .14 unit works out to 4.15 (+315)

Bolton-West Ham
I'm passing on this Game as its pretty much priced accordingly on all sides.

I will update tomorrow in case something crops up and please post any points you have got. :drink:

 

[winbet]

I want to finish off this Week with a few points. Firstly I realise its hard for People living in the States to get access to Exchanges and other reputable Books in Europe but this Game is so hard to beat every edge needs to be covered. My posted Bets today probably showed a 0.5 unit profit thanks to digging deeper on games rather than just betting the Under, in fact I ended up winning 1.75 Units thanks to hedging on the exchanges in play. Normally long term hedging is to be frowned upon but there comes a stage in a game where its tactically wise to hedge out, if your getting a premium price to start with then it doesnt cut into your percentages.

As always this isnt about posting plays, its about learning to bet smart and get every possible thing in you favour, thats the main reason why betting closely priced Games is essential as it levels the board between Book and Bettor. :drink: